Wyndham Championship odds, golf picks, predictions this weekend

Wyndham Championship odds, golf picks, predictions this weekend

Industrial Content material, 21+

I’ve damaged down my statistical modeling technique for the Wyndham Championship, so we will now start sharing golf picks.

We start, as at all times, with my favourite spinoff markets this week. Primarily based on a mix of my modeling output and related course historical past, I’ve recognized three markets that present good worth to bettors. In all instances, there are implied chance edges primarily based on my pricing.

With that stated, let’s dive into my performs. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective on the time of writing.

Declare a Danger-Free First Guess as much as $1,000

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Up To $1,500 Danger Free First Guess

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$1,000 No Sweat First Guess

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Wyndham Championship odds, golf picks, predictions

Finest Guess #1 – Russell Henley High-20 End (+145)

I used to be a contact shocked to seek out Henley in plus-money for this spinoff, however nonetheless am excessive on him coming into this week.

At this occasion, the Georgia product owns two consecutive top-10 finishes — T-Seventh final 12 months, T-Ninth in 2020 — and has gained a minimum of 2.6 strokes, placing in two straight appearances at Sedgefield Nation Membership.

Henley can be coming off a T-Tenth final week on the Rocket Mortgage and profiles fairly nicely primarily based on my statistical modeling. Over his final 24 qualifying rounds, Henley ranks third total within the discipline. Increase the pattern to incorporate every participant’s final 100 qualifying rounds, and Henley rises to second total within the discipline.

Russell HenleyAP

By way of the previous mannequin, Henley charges out extremely in nearly all the important thing classes. He’s sixth within the discipline in SG: Method, Tenth in GIRs gained, and Eleventh in birdies or higher gained. Additional, Henley ranks thirteenth in SG: Par 4’s and Twentieth on Par 4’s, between 400 and 450 yards.

Lastly, though Henley solely owns two top-20 finishes in his final 5 occasions at programs beneath 7,200 yards, there’s a case that optimistic regression may very well be on the best way. On the three occasions the place he failed to complete T-Twentieth or higher — Wells Fargo, RBC Heritage, and the RSM Traditional — Henley was let down by his putter however posted sturdy method numbers.

At a monitor the place he’s traditionally demonstrated consolation with the flat stick, count on one other stable end for Henley in North Carolina.

Finest Guess #2 – J.T. Poston High-30 End (+130)

Can J.T. Poston get a bit of respect placed on his identify right here?

Granted, the 2019 Wyndham champion doesn’t precisely have the perfect report right here — outdoors of his win, he’s made the lower solely as soon as in 4 remaining appearances — however latest outcomes go away me inspired. Plus, earlier than posting a T-2nd on the Vacationers, Poston had missed the lower 4 straight years at TPC River Highlands.

This 12 months’s John Deere Traditional champion profiles out fairly nicely primarily based on his underlying statistics. He’s first within the discipline in my 12-round projection and sixth total in my 24-round output. In specializing in the latter mannequin, there’s quite a bit to love in regards to the Postman.

He’s regular along with his ball placing — twenty fourth in fairways gained, twenty seventh in SG: Method, Seventh in GIRs gained — and has demonstrated a capability to attain on quick tracks. Over his final 24 qualifying rounds, Poston is seventeenth within the discipline in birdies or higher gained and second in each SG: Par 4 and SG: Par 4’s – 400 to 450 yards.

J.T. Poston takes a shot on the RBC Heritage Traditional.Getty Pictures

Moreover, Poston possesses an awesome monitor report on comparable programs. Throughout his final six occasions on programs beneath 7,200 yards, he’s by no means missed a lower and owns three consecutive top-10 finishes at these occasions. Throughout all six occasions, he owns 4 top-30 finishes.

Primarily based on these projections, I might have Poston, who owns three finishes of T-Eleventh or higher in his final 4 occasions, priced nearer to +110 for a top-30 end and would again him as much as that worth.

Betting on Sports activities?

Finest Guess #3 – Ryan Armour High-40 End (+280)

I’m taking part in a hunch right here with Armour, who each owns good course historical past and fashions out barely greater than this worth suggests.

Though he missed the lower final 12 months at Sedgefield CC, Armour owns 4 finishes of T-Twenty fifth or higher in his 4 earlier begins at this monitor, together with two top-10 finishes. Moreover, he’s gained strokes each on method and with the putter in 4 of his final 5 appearances right here.

By way of his modeling output, Armour ranks twenty third in my 24-round projection and Twentieth in my 12-round output.

Let’s concentrate on the previous mannequin right here. In that measure, Armour ranks first within the discipline in fairways gained and is 71st in SG: Method. Nevertheless, given his SG: Method report at this monitor, I’m not overly involved about that. Past these measures, Armour can be sturdy on the subject of SG: Par 4’s (sixth within the discipline) and Par 4’s between 400 and 450 yards (twenty seventh).

Lastly, Armour owns an awesome ending report this 12 months on programs beneath 7,200 yards. Relationship again to this 12 months’s Sony Open, Armour has posted finishes of Twenty fifth-Twenty fifth-MC-Twenty eighth-Twentieth in his final 5 occasions on tracks beneath 7,200 yards.

Primarily based on these findings, I’ll again Armour as much as +250 for a top-40 end this week.

About Muji Sakawari

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