Sebastian Munoz has high ceiling at AT&T Byron Nelson

Sebastian Munoz has high ceiling at AT&T Byron Nelson

Contemporary off a tourney the place the successful complete was single-digits under-par in chilly, wet climate, we must be again to a proverbial birdie-fest for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson in sizzling, breezy situations at TPC Craig Ranch. This match has yielded a 25-under successful tally in its preliminary internet hosting position final yr, together with 5 different scores of not less than 21-under and 25 at 15-under or higher.

In contrast to the previous two occasions, this one could have extra star energy earlier than the yr’s second main. Seven of the world’s top-13 gamers will likely be in attendance, together with Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama.

Let’s begin with an outright play in a spread the place I consider there’s some critical worth.

Outright winner: Sebastian Munoz (80/1)

Sebastian Munoz tees off on the second tee throughout the ultimate spherical of the Mexico Open.AP

I initially had Erik Van Rooyen as my favourite outright play. I appreciated the whole lot about him — from the truth that he was trending in the suitable route to his propensity for making birdies.

There was only one little challenge: Not lengthy after the piece was revealed, he withdrew. I’ll personal that as a #JINX in order for you me to, however actually, EVR merely represented a candy spot on the board the place I needed to throw a couple of darts.

As an alternative, I’ll pivot to Munoz, who’s getting very near Colombian Charles Howell III territory right here — and as I’ve written previously, that’s not an insult in any respect. In his final seven begins, Munoz has completed between Twenty first and thirty ninth each single time, cashing some stable paychecks with out ever as soon as significantly contending for a title.

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If the CH3 comparability doesn’t do that justice, he’s mainly in a gaggle with the likes of Russell Henley, Maverick McNealy and Brian Harman as guys who proceed to grind out stable performances with out a lot to point out for it in the best way of factors or cash or big-time outcomes. Even so, I nonetheless assume good issues are on the horizon for the entire gamers I’ve talked about right here.

I’ll admit that Munoz may maintain extra worth for prop performs the place he can repay that top ground, however I don’t thoughts taking an opportunity on his inevitable ceiling right here. And simply assume: All of that Van Rooyen cash we’ve saved from the WD can go towards a couple of different gamers on this vary.

High-five end: Dustin Johnson (+400)

Dustin Johnson follows his shot from the sixteenth tee throughout the second spherical of the RBC Heritage.Getty Photographs

This stays certainly one of my favourite present statistics, as a result of it says quite a bit about us and the way we have a look at these items and the way we are able to form them to suit our private narratives: Since his most up-to-date world victory final February, Johnson doesn’t personal a single top-five end in a stroke-play occasion. (He did attain the semifinals of the WGC-Dell Applied sciences Match Play, leading to a solo fourth-place consequence.) Then once more, in 25 stroke-play begins since that win, he does personal eight top-10s and 13 top-25s.

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What that tells us is that DJ hasn’t significantly contended on the again 9 of a Sunday afternoon, however he’s hardly taking part in poor golf, ending in that top-25 vary in half of his appearances.

With all of that in thoughts, I’ll again Johnson to interrupt a type of streaks, lastly posting a top-five end this week. Whereas it’s not very related, as he hasn’t performed this tourney in a half-decade and hasn’t competed on this course, Johnson does personal seven consecutive top-20s at this one, although just one top-five, manner again in 2009.

High-10 end: Aaron Clever (+400)

Aaron Clever putts to make par on the second inexperienced throughout the ultimate spherical of the Mexico Open.Getty Photographs

Let’s say you play Powerball each week. As an alternative of utilizing the computer-generated numbers, although, you want selecting your individual, having some management over the consequence by selecting your fortunate numbers every time. And let’s say that after a couple of months of taking part in Powerball, you continue to haven’t hit for some $183 million jackpot.

What do you do now? Nicely, one choice, in fact, is to simply cease taking part in. In case you’re going to proceed, nonetheless, you may as effectively preserve taking part in your fortunate numbers. In spite of everything, consider the remorse you’d have in case you didn’t play ’em they usually all of the sudden hit in the future.

That is basically how I really feel about Clever proper now. I’ve performed him sufficient over the previous few months that I’ll really feel some critical regret if he wins and I’m not on him in some respect.

With three finishes of Twenty first-or-better in his final 5 begins, he’s trending in the suitable route and will pull a Max Homa this week, successful the identical occasion for a second time, however on a very completely different golf course.

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