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One other enormous slate of European soccer motion is upon us and I’m right here to share two greatest bets for the Premier League slate.
Whereas loads of eyeballs shall be educated on the FA Cup semifinals at Wembley Stadium that includes Manchester Metropolis-Liverpool and Chelsea-Crystal Palace, soccer bettors nonetheless get six video games to select from within the English high flight.
For my pair of performs, I”m wanting past the edges, although, and selecting to concentrate on two totals, each overs. That mentioned, let’s dive into my two greatest bets for this weekend’s Premier League slate.
Finest Wager #1 – Southampton/Arsenal FC Over 2.5 Targets (-125)
Southampton have been embarrassed 6-0 at residence in its final fixture towards Chelsea and solely generated 0.5 anticipated objectives in that match.
Nevertheless, its residence goal-scoring document earlier than that match was stable and I imagine its assault will rediscover that type towards Arsenal Saturday. Previous to the Chelsea assembly, the Saints created no less than one anticipated objective in six straight fixtures and eight of the final 9. The one fixture during which it failed to take action got here in a match the place Southampton performed down a person a whole half.
Plus, Southampton might see slight constructive offensive regression primarily based on its residence performances. Via 16 fixtures on the St. Mary’s Stadium, supervisor Ralph Hassenhutl’s aspect has scored 20 objectives on virtually 21.5 anticipated, per fbref.com.
Kyle Walker-Peters of Southampton holds off the problem from Bukayo Saka of ArsenalGetty Pictures
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That mentioned, Southampton’s protection has struggled of late. In its final 5 Premier League fixtures, it has conceded two anticipated objectives per 90 minutes and has solely held one aspect below one anticipated objective. Opponents Arsenal arrive at this fixture in nice offensive type — 1.65 xG/90 minutes in its final 9 fixtures — and have a stable historic document towards Southampton — no less than 1.5 xG in two straight and 6 of the final seven head-to-head Premier League conferences.
However that is additionally an Arsenal protection that struggles to defend towards strain away from residence. In 5 street fixtures towards top-half strain sides not named Manchester Metropolis and Liverpool, supervisor Mikel Arteta’s squad is conceding 1.3 anticipated objectives per 90 minutes and have stored solely two clear sheets, one in all which was undeserved.
In consequence, anticipate a high-scoring contest between these sides on Saturday.
Leicester Metropolis’s James Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-HallReuters
Finest Wager #2 – Newcastle United/Leicester Metropolis Each Groups to Rating “Sure” (-140)
I acknowledge that is fairly a little bit of juice to put, however I’m shocked this worth isn’t north of -160.
Either side enter this fixture with a BTTS proportion of 60 % or higher for the season and are each north of 67 % for his or her respective venues for this fixture (Leicester Metropolis has a 79 % BTTS proportion away from residence this season).
Though Newcastle has stored clear sheets in two of its final three residence fixtures, it has been some time because it confronted a high offense on residence soil. And in seven fixtures towards top-half offenses this season, Newcastle has but to maintain a clear sheet and has allowed 2.27 xG/90 in these fixtures.
On the identical time, although, Leicester’s protection has not held up properly towards bottom-half sides, notably away from residence. In seven street fixtures towards such opposition this season, the Foxes have allowed no less than one xGA in all seven and have conceded no less than one objective in six, per fbref.com.
Given solely two sides — Manchester Metropolis and Chelsea — have held Newcastle goalless at residence this season, anticipate supervisor Eddie Howe’s aspect to get on the board fairly simply. Add in that Leicester Metropolis has solely been held below 1.0 xG in two of its final 9 fixtures and I anticipate we’ll see objectives at each ends of the pitch come Sunday.