How to bet every team in the division

How to bet every team in the division

Our tour across the NFL continues as we head to the AFC South for one more take a look at group win totals.

Though the Titans and Colts share the identical win complete of 9.5 video games, Indianapolis is at the moment the odds-on-favorite to win the division at -115. Tennessee is subsequent up at +150, whereas Jacksonville’s odds are even longer at +750.

Houston is the longshot within the division with odds at +2500. (Strains by way of BetMGM.)

AFC South WorkforceOverUnderneathHouston Texans4.5 / -1054.5 / -115Jacksonville Jaguars6.5 / +1056.5 / -125Indianapolis Colts9.5 / -1609.5 / +130Tennessee Titans9.5 / +1209.5 / -145

The ultimate factor to notice is the scheduling composition for the AFC North, as every group may have the next:

Six video games in opposition to divisional opponents.4 intraconference video games in opposition to the AFC West.4 interconference video games in opposition to the NFC East.One sport in opposition to an NFC North group with an identical win-loss document from the earlier season.

Houston Texans Over 4.5 Wins

After a tumultuous 2021 season, the Houston Texans will welcome any semblance of normalcy as this time round, there gained’t be any debate about who their beginning quarterback can be. The job ought to belong to Davis Mills, who made 11 begins and appeared in 13 video games because the Texans gained 4 video games for a second straight season.

Mills was a 2021 third-round draft choose from Stanford, and soccer die-hards would possibly recall that he was the No. 1 quarterback recruit popping out of highschool. There’s no query that Mills has expertise, as he accomplished 66.8% of his passes as a rookie.

Davis Mills throws a move in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers.Getty Pictures

However earlier than you assume that almost all of his passes had been merely check-downs, he nonetheless completed the 12 months with a better supposed air yards (7.2) per move try than six different quarterbacks within the league.

Mills ought to profit from his expertise final 12 months as we solely want the Texans to win another sport than their earlier two seasons to go over their win complete. Furthermore, Houston must be buoyed by an offseason that obtained favorable critiques from media shops.

A lot of the thrill surrounding the Texans is because of the haul they obtained for buying and selling wantaway quarterback Deshaun Watson. In alternate, Houston obtained three first-round picks (2022, 2023, 2024), a third-round choose in 2022, and a fourth-round choose in 2024.

The Texans landed LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. with the third total choose. Houston then grabbed Texas A&M guard Kenyon Inexperienced with the fifteenth choose and Baylor security Jalen Pitre within the second spherical with the thirty seventh choose.

And who can fault the Texans for taking a pair of Alabama gamers in huge receiver John Metchie III (second spherical, forty fourth total) and linebacker Christian Harris (third spherical, seventy fifth total)?

Even after Harris, Houston nonetheless had extra picks within the draft with Florida working again Dameon Pierce (fourth spherical, 107th total), Stanford’s defensive finish Thomas Booker (fifth spherical, a hundred and fiftieth total), Oregon State tight finish Teagan Quitoriano (fifth spherical, a hundred and seventieth total), and LSU offensive deal with Austin Deculus (sixth spherical, 205thth total).

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Whereas the Texans may not achieve a ton of headlines from their free agent signings of edge rusher Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (79.2 PFF grade), defensive again MJ Stewart (83.8 PFF grade), and guard AJ Cann (47.7 PFF grade), the truth is the roster is coming collectively properly because of a really profitable draft.

Houston also needs to profit from the veteran management of Lovie Smith as its new head coach. And after back-to-back seasons of 4 wins, the Texans are able to recover from the (small) hump.

Jacksonville Jaguars Underneath 6.5 Wins

The Jaguars will face a stiff problem to win 6.5 video games with first-year head coach Doug Pederson. Jacksonville would want to win seven video games to money a ticket for over bettors. That projection would greater than double the Jaguars’ 2021 win complete of three video games. Doing so gained’t be simple, particularly contemplating that almost all pundits felt the Jaguars had been under common in bettering the group throughout the offseason.

Professional Soccer Focus gave Jacksonville a C+ grade. Which means as many as 23 groups completed with a better grade than them. Jacksonville didn’t land a game-changing famous person within the offseason however did usher in some items to assist with its run protection.

Whereas Folorunso Fatukasi ought to enhance the line of defense, he’s coming off a 2021 season the place he obtained an total participant grade of 61.5 with a 57.3 in opposition to the run.

Nevertheless, the expertise is there, contemplating that in 2020, Fatukasi obtained an total participant grade of 80.1  and 86.2 in opposition to the run. 61.5 participant grade.

Jacksonville would possibly’ve additionally paid properly above the market value to land huge receiver Christian Kirk ($72 million), guard Brandon Scherff ($49.5 million), and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun ($30 million). One has to surprise if free brokers have virtually a surcharge price to hitch up with the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

And though second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence may have some new weapons at his disposal, together with huge receiver Zay Jones becoming a member of from Las Vegas and tight finish Evan Engram from the Giants, neither of those gamers are thought-about the highest of the category of their positions.

Travon Walker creates a sack fumble in opposition to Auburn.Getty Pictures

Then there’s the NFL Draft, the place many felt Jacksonville handed on the highest-rated participant in Michigan’s edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson by deciding on Georgia’s Travon Walker.

The Jaguars did make the most of most of their draft choices on the defensive facet of the ball, with Utah’s Devin Lloyd (first spherical, twenty seventh total) and Wyoming’s Chad Muma (third spherical, seventieth total).

Kentucky heart Luke Fortner was added within the third spherical however drafting one other working again in Ole Miss’s Snoop Conner (fifth spherical, 154th total) within the fifth spherical was a little bit of a head-scratcher on condition that Jacksonville is already properly stocked on the place.

Consequently, I’m not too keen on the Jaguars’ probabilities to double their win complete with this roster. I’ll look to play their win complete beneath 6.5 video games.

Indianapolis Colts Underneath 9.5 Wins

My tackle the Colts could be a bit simplistic as a result of I can’t subscribe to the notion that at this stage in his profession, Matt Ryan is a greater quarterback than Carson Wentz. Wentz completed ninth in Whole QBR with a 54.7 worth, whereas Ryan completed twenty first with a 46.1 mark.

I do know that Wentz is a little bit of a lightning rod, however you may’t ignore his 27-to-7 touchdown-interception ratio. Compared, Ryan had fewer touchdowns (20) whereas throwing extra interceptions (12).

Nevertheless, after the Colts’ choke job in lacking the playoffs on the ultimate day of the common season, Wentz was the logical scapegoat. That’s to not say that he didn’t deserve it, however the numbers counsel there’s expertise there if he can higher defend the soccer, significantly at important junctures of the sport.

Matt Ryan throws a move throughout OTAs for the Colts.Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures

Buying Ryan wasn’t the one commerce the Colts made. In addition they shipped cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (69.9 PFF grade) to the Raiders in alternate for pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue (47.2 PFF grade).

Indianapolis then signed free agent and former Defensive Participant of the 12 months Stephon Gilmore (77.1 PFF grade) to interchange Ya-Sin. Brandon Facyson (51.7 PFF grade) was additionally introduced over from the Chargers to offer further help.

Except for the three strikes, the Colts prioritized retaining their core gamers by resigning offensive deal with Matt Pryor (76.5 PFF grade) and defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis (71.3 PFF grade). The Colts additionally gave out extensions to receiver Mo Alie-Cox (66.42 PFF grade) and linebacker Zaire Franklin (71.3 PFF grade).

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If we flip to the draft, Indianapolis didn’t choose till the second spherical when it chosen Cincinnati huge receiver Alec Pierce 53rd total. With three picks within the third spherical, the Colts chosen Virginia tight finish Jelani Woods (73rd total), Central Michigan deal with Bernhard Raimann (77th total), and Maryland security Nick Cross (96th total).

Indianapolis then drafted Missouri State defensive deal with Eric Johnson within the fifth spherical (159th total).

Within the sixth spherical, the Colts took a second tight finish in Youngstown State’s Andrew Ogletree (192nd total), adopted by one other defensive deal with in Cincinnati’s Curtis Brooks (216th total).

Yale’s Rodney Thomas II was the Colts’ last choose within the seventh spherical (239th total).

Nevertheless, regardless of the assorted strikes by the Colts’ entrance workplace, all of it comes right down to how Ryan performs on the age of 37. I’m clearly within the minority, however I don’t see Ryan as an improve over Wentz, so I can solely look to play the beneath on this spot.

Tennessee Titans 9.5 Wins (Go)

After committing to 3 picks on this division, I’ll move on taking a place with the Titans. Nevertheless, I’d in all probability lean to the beneath if I needed to choose.

I’ll admit that I’m a bit leery of fading Titans head coach Mike Vrabel. By a large margin, Vrabel’s been the very best coach from the Invoice Belichick teaching tree.

Nonetheless, he’ll have his palms full because the Titans are virtually in a rebuild on offense as they’ll have to interchange huge reivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

In line with Mike Moraitis of Yahoo Sports activities, 14 gamers with at the least two targets in 2021 are not with the group.

Furthermore, Tennessee has to interchange 66% of its targets from the earlier season, which is the best mark of any group within the league.

The Titans may also be with out two starters on their offensive line after making some cuts to get beneath the wage cap. Thus, it’s no shock that the Titans reserved six of their 9 draft picks for gamers on the offensive facet of the ball.

Treylon Burks catches a move for the Arkansas Razorbacks.Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures

Arkansas huge receiver Treylon Burks (first spherical, 18th total) may have the largest footwear to fill as Brown’s alternative. Nevertheless, the truth is that for his or her 2022 draft to be a hit, the Titans might want to get the very best out of Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (third spherical, 86th total).

Sadly, if Willis will get important minutes this season, it might sign that the Titans are already out of playoff rivalry.

Most of Tennessee’s draft picks are considered extra as long-term initiatives with respectable upside for potential. But whereas these picks might pan out sooner or later, they might depart the Titans considerably uncovered for this upcoming season.

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