Best MLB player prop bets, predictions today: Targeting Mets-Padres

Best MLB player prop bets, predictions today: Targeting Mets-Padres

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MLB Monday has a little bit of a lighter slate than ordinary however that doesn’t imply there isn’t loads to guess on.

For right this moment’s video games, we will likely be specializing in the Mariners vs. Astros and Mets vs. Padres.

Every of those groups are contenders to make the playoffs and possibly even a World Collection look.

General, participant prop bets have turn out to be more and more in style in baseball, particularly with Similar-Recreation-Parlays on FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars, simply to call a number of.

Maybe, tonight’s participant prop bets for Jake Cronenworth and Robbie Ray could be an added leg on your bets or a standalone guess too.

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Finest MLB participant prop bets for Monday

Mets vs. Padres: Jake Cronenworth 2+ runs scored +1100 (FanDuel)

Large odds right here for the most popular hitter on the Padres by a mile. After a very gradual begin, the Padres’ No. 2-hitter has dwelling runs in two straight video games. This could possibly be the place Cronenworth begins enjoying just like the caliber participant he confirmed in 2020 when the superior stats liked him. That 12 months he ranked within the high 2 p.c in xBA (anticipated batting common) and high 9 p.c in xSLG (anticipated slugging share), that are formulated utilizing exit velocity per BaseballSavant.

This 12 months, Cronenworth has been unfortunate on batted balls in play (BABIP). This could possibly be as a result of his chase price is means too excessive. He chases quite a lot of balls out of the zone, so the rationale that these odds are so lengthy is that he doesn’t actually stroll quite a bit.

Jake CronenworthGetty Photographs

At the moment, he owns a .261 BABIP which is barely decrease than anticipated (round .300). His barrel percentages may positively be higher and his hard-hit price is lower than ultimate.

All of this stuff scream why the chances are +1100. Nevertheless, his previous couple of video games, mixed with some anticipated optimistic regression, traditionally nice exit velocities, and hitting second for a strong Padres lineup are all explanation why this is a superb worth spot.

That is value a guess right down to +975 however not any decrease than that.

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Robbie Ray ‘over’ 5.5 strikeouts -110 (BetMGM)

Large Robbie Ray fan over right here as he was a superb guess throughout the season final 12 months to win AL CY Younger. Ray is a pure strikeout pitcher, who has struggled giving up dwelling runs this season. Nevertheless, he’s nonetheless hanging out 27 p.c of the batters he faces and whereas his walks are up from final 12 months, they’re down from his prior profession norms.

Superior metrics say that these dwelling runs are a bit fluky. Ray really has a greater launch angle this 12 months than he did final 12 months (14.9 vs. 15.7). Furthermore, his hard-hit share is down quite considerably, 43.1 p.c in 2021 versus 40.5 p.c this 12 months.

General, Ray remains to be a really strong pitcher and whereas the Astros have a top-tier lineup, that is an overreaction. The Astros do strike out the fifth-least in baseball, simply 7.5 instances per recreation. Ray has been over this quantity in 5 straight begins, together with 9 strikeouts of the Mets who strike out the sixth-least quantity of instances in baseball (7.57).

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